06.01.202516:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold prices remain in the red near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), despite modest weakness in the US dollar.

Gold continues to attract sellers for the second consecutive day. The hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve regarding a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 continues to support higher yields on US Treasury bonds, acting as a key factor diverting funds away from the yellow metal. However, the ongoing pullback in the US dollar from November 2022 highs, achieved last Thursday, along with geopolitical risks and fears of a trade war, may help limit the decline in precious metal prices.

Ahead of this week's significant US macroeconomic data, including Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, traders are advised to avoid aggressive directional bets. Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting, set to be released on Wednesday, will play a crucial role in influencing the short-term dynamics of the US dollar, providing momentum for the XAU/USD pair.

Downward support is expected near the 100-day SMA, currently tied to the $2,625 level. Below this level, the next psychological threshold is $2,600, a breach of which could bring the price down to December's lows. Further selling pressure could act as a new trigger for bears, paving the way for deeper losses.

Conversely, momentum beyond the Asian session high near $2,647 could lift prices towards the $2,665 level or a multi-week high. Subsequent upward movements could target intermediate resistance in the $2,681–2,683 zone, potentially setting the stage for a move towards the key $2,700 psychological level. A break above this point could pave the way for the continuation of the two-week upward trend.

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