08.01.202514:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, gold sustains modest intraday growth during the first half of the European session, though it lacks the momentum for a stronger upward move. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, fears of a trade war, and geopolitical tensions act as tailwinds for the precious metal.

However, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which keeps U.S. Treasury yields near multi-month highs, along with renewed demand for the U.S. dollar, limits gold's upward potential. Additionally, traders are hesitant to open new positions ahead of key U.S. labor market reports, including the ADP employment report for the private sector, weekly initial jobless claims, and the minutes of the FOMC meeting, all scheduled for release during the North American session.

The $2665 level serves as a strong resistance barrier. Considering the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart has just begun to gain positive momentum, a sustained break above this barrier could act as a new trigger for bulls, paving the way for further gains. Subsequent upward movement could lift gold prices to intermediate resistance in the $2681–2683 zone, en route to the psychological $2700 level.

On the other hand, weakness below the $2635 level will find some support near the 100-day SMA and the weekly low around $2615–2614, established on Monday. Following this, a confluence of the psychological $2600 level with the 100-day EMA and a short-term upward trendline extending from November's low provides additional support. A convincing break below this confluence would expose December's low in the $2583 level. If this level is breached, the probability would shift in favor of the bears.

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