08.01.202514:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: NZD/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the NZD/USD pair halts the previous day's pullback from its near three-week high but struggles to attract buyers. Traders are reluctant to open new positions, preferring to wait for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Additionally, today's U.S. labor market data—featuring the ADP private-sector employment report and weekly initial jobless claims—adds to the cautious sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar attempts to recover recent losses, buoyed by positive economic data from the U.S. This fundamental backdrop requires caution before confirming whether spot prices have formed a short-term bottom in preparation for extending the recent rebound from the lowest level since October 2022, near the 0.5585 level reached last week.

At its December monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance, indicating plans to slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025. This continues to support rising U.S. Treasury yields, favoring dollar bulls. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks, concerns over tariff plans by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, and the potential for a trade war between the U.S. and China sustain the likelihood of periodic dollar-buying surges. Combined with a cautious market mood, this should help limit the NZD/USD pair's downward potential.

From a technical perspective, daily chart oscillators remain firmly in negative territory and are not yet oversold. Thus, the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair remains to the downside.

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