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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday and secured a position above the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3003 – by Friday morning. This suggests that the upward movement may continue toward the next level at 1.3151. If the pair settles below the 1.3003 level, this will favor the U.S. dollar and signal a decline toward 1.2931 and 1.2865.
The wave situation has become confusing lately. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous one, while the new downward wave easily breached the previous low. This may give the impression that the trend is shifting to a bearish one. However, considering recent events, the strength of movements, and the frequency of reversals, I wouldn't jump to such conclusions. Market sentiment could still shift multiple times. Everything depends on the development of the trade war.
On Thursday, traders were mainly focused on news from Donald Trump. Although the U.S. inflation report was somewhat surprising, it had no impact on trading throughout the day. The U.S. Consumer Price Index fell to 2.4%, which is positive for the Fed but negative for the dollar, as it raises the risk of renewed FOMC monetary easing. However, this is not the biggest concern for the dollar at the moment. Trump continues to impose tariffs and stir global tensions, which keeps the dollar under pressure. Today, the market may take a short pause, while the UK is set to release GDP and industrial production reports. The pound is currently in a position where it doesn't necessarily need strong data. It has shown remarkable growth in recent months and could continue rising thanks to Trump. Even if the UK data turns out weak—it won't be a problem, as Trump continues to support the British pound indirectly.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains in a bullish trend. Even a consolidation below the ascending channel won't indicate a trend reversal just yet. The trade war continues to intensify, and in recent months this has only contributed to the dollar's decline. In any case, chart analysis alone cannot currently answer the question of what to expect next. The news background continues to drive the market.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bullish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators dropped by 4,030, while the number of short positions increased by 5,627. Bears have lost their edge in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 105,000 versus 70,000.
In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but recent developments could cause a long-term market reversal. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has increased from 80,000 to 105,000, while short positions have decreased from 80,000 to 70,000. More importantly, in the last nine weeks, long positions grew from 59,000 to 105,000, and short positions fell from 81,000 to 70,000.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
Friday's economic calendar includes several noteworthy events. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment will be present today. Any updates on the trade war will also be influential, if they emerge.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today if it closes below the 1.3003 level, targeting 1.2931. Buying opportunities were available after closing above 1.2810 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2865 and 1.2931. All targets have been reached. Trades can be held as long as the pair remains above 1.3003, targeting 1.3151.
Fibonacci grids are built between 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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