15.08.201310:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for August 15, 2013

Análisis a largo plazo

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Strong data on GDP in France, Germany, and the Eurozone did not provoke single reaction of the European currency. Germany’s GDP in the second quarter grew 0.7% vs. forecast for 0.6%, the Eurozone’s GDP rose 0.3% vs. expectorations for 0.2%. It looks like the investors do not take into account the European news, the expectations are influenced by news from the Fed and general attitude towards risk. The investors are not willing to risk amid situation in Egypt. However, Federation of German Industry (BDI) was not pleased by the yesterday’s data; Germany’s economic forecast for 2013 was lowered from 0.8% to 0.5%.

Yesterday James Bullard, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louise spoke about reasonability to start QE3 cut in October (but not in September).

Today a lot of important US events are published. At 16:30 UTC+4 Initial Jobless Claims are issued, it is forecast to be flat 333-334К. At the same time Empire State Manufacturing Index in August, forecast 10.2 vs. 9.5 in the previous month.

At 17:15 UTC+4 data on Capacity Utilization in July is revealed, forecast 77.9% vs. 77.8% in June. US Industrial Production is estimated to grow 0.5% vs. 0.3% in June. NAHB Housing Market Index in August is expected to be flat, 57.

In the local situation the investors may risk at a short date following the stock market buying the euro (on Friday positive data on trade Balance in the Eurozone is also expected). At this scenario the growth is possible if the price consolidates above the point of interjection of indicator lines on the H4 (1.3306) and the target will be the boarder of the green sub channel 1.3355. If the QE3 continues influencing amid the positive data, the first bearish target is support of local channel 1.3247, the break of it opens the second target on the support of trend blue line 1.3203.

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