16.09.201318:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for September 16, 2013

Análisis a largo plazo

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The major drastic feature of last Friday was strengthening of the US dollar against disappointing data on US Retail Sales. Retail Sales grew 0.2% vs. forecast for 0.5%, Retail Sales Ex-Auto grew 0.1% vs. expectations for 0.3%. Expected close of the currency futures was in a very appropriate situation, the investors did not close then on Thursday, probably they had known about Friday’s weak data.

Early today the markets opened with gap amid the news pertaining to Lawrence Summers refuses to take part in the struggle for the position of the chair of the Federal Reserve System. Now Janet Yellen is the leader in this rivalry, continuation of QE3 is connected with her. However, if Timothy Geithner, former Secretary of the US Treasury, will be pushed actively forward, the situation will shift to a negative one again. On the contrary, there are rumors that Geithner is not interested in that appointment and we heard that Yellen is skeptical about appointment as well; thus, the situation is intriguing.

At 17:15 UTC+4 data on US Capacity Utilization in August; forecast 77.8% vs. 77.6% in July. At the same time Industrial Production in August is issued; forecast 0.5% vs. 0.0% in July. We expect the drop of the euro and close of the gap.

From the technical point of view, the price may break the resistance of trend line on the daily chart 1.3392, here we expect the reverse downwards. The significant bearish target is 1.3266, support of lilac trend line.

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