27.09.201311:39 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for September 27, 2013

Análisis a largo plazo

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Yesterday the major event was data on US GDP in the second quarter in the final estimate. However, the figures were not changed, 2.5%. US Pending Home Sales in August dropped 1.6%, vs. forecast for -0.9%. It seemed like the euro could strengthen, on the contrary this currency was bought against the news. It is the major sign of the prevalence of ideas connected with rising of the debt ceiling and started being influenced by the impending QE3 trimming. Besides, negative news came from Italy. Yesterday several ministers, members of The People of Freedom party resigned due to Silvio Berlusconi had been expelled from Senate.

Today at 12:10 UTC+4 data on Eurozone Retail Sales PMI in September is issued (in August the index was 50.3). At 13:00 UTC+4 Mario Draghi, the ECB President, speaks.

Today the major event is data on Personal Spending and personal Income in the US in August (16:30 UTC+4). Income is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.5%, Spending is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%. Data on revised UoM Consumer Sentiment index in the US in September is expected to be 78.2 vs. 76.8. We expect the decline of the euro.

From the technical point of view, when the level of support of trend line on the daily chart 1.3467 is broken, the first target 1.3420 opens, then 1.3387.

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